The copium:
“The reassuring thing is that people don’t really hate Labour… they hate him.”
It's a reference, of course, to Prime Minister Keir Starmer. That quote is the verdict of a Labour MP who is not usually critical of the PM, in an area which went heavily to Reform UK.
One of his colleagues said Starmer himself was the main issue on the doorstep, while a left-wing Labour MP tells the BBC the message from Yorkshire voters was: "It’s curtains for Keir."
A senior Labour figure also tells me: "Everyone in Wales is saying this is all Starmer’s fault." The party is expected to lose power and come third in the race for the Senedd, or Welsh Parliament.
Starmer’s repeated assertion in his interview this morning that he wouldn’t walk away from the job, they say, "had gone down very, very badly" - and had potentially put his leadership in more danger as a result.
And I am told Labour’s "red wall" group of MPs – who are largely in seats where Reform is the main challenger – will be meeting on Wednesday to discuss next moves.
So far they haven’t been openly critical of the Starmer leadership, but the electoral position looks stark in their Midlands and northern English seats.
But who would replace Starmer is far from settled, and those close to Downing Street say he will "hunker down" and resist any attempt to oust him.
Of course, there are MPs who tell us they would like him to stay on – with a potentially divisive leadership contest while in office being seen as more damaging than keeping him in place.
